UFC 94 Predictions

I've been a diehard MMA fan since UFC I was televised while I was in the police academy in 1993. I've seen hundreds of cards from Dream to Pride to Strikeforce to EliteXC to UFC to Affliction.....but I have never been so pumped for an MMA card as I am for UFC 94 tonight. I'm a big B.J. Penn fan and am hoping he takes it but I have a ton of respect for GSP and just want to see an historic fight. I thought I'd take my shot at some prognosticating for tonight's card:

UFC 94

Matt Arroyo v. Dan Cramer ARROYO
Jake O'Brien v. Christian Wellisch O'BRIEN
Chris Wilson v. John Howard WILSON
Manny Gamburyan v. Thiago Tavares TAVARES
Jon Fitch v. Akihiro Gono FITCH
Nate Diaz v. Clay Guida GUIDA
Karo Parisyan v. Dong Hyun Kim KIM
Stephan Bonnar v. Jon Jones BONNAR
Lyoto Machida v. Thiago Silva MACHIDA
B.J. Penn v. Georges St. Pierre GSP

As you can see, I love B.J. but I picked GSP. If I was betting on the fight and could get +160 or +170 on B.J., I would definitely go that route. At this point, I think GSP's wrestling is going to be the difference but I'm praying for an epic B.J. performance.

I'll check back on Monday to see how I did.

Thanks for reading,

Eric "W2D"

January

Quick update:

I'm heading to the Commerce on Sunday to play in the LAPC $335 event at 1:00 P.M. Just another example of why my wife is the best woman in the world..she didn't bat an eye when I told her I was going.

My goal for the year is to read twenty (20) new books and I've already powered down two of them. I read Outliers by Malcolm Gladwell and Talent is Overrated by Geoff Colvin. I highly recommend both of them. I've compiled a reading list for 2009 which so far includes the following:

According to Doyle by Doyle Brunson
The Looming Tower: Al Qaeda and the Road to 9/11 by Lawrence Wright
Fiasco: The American Military Adventure in Iraq by Thomas Ricks
Elements of Poker by Tommy Angelo
Just 2 Seconds by Gavin Debecker
The World is Flat by Thomas Friedman

I'm always looking for recommendations so if you know of any "must-reads", please let me know.

Thanks for reading,

W2D

Biggest Night Ever!

Wow....I'll cut to the chase. I had my biggest night in my online poker career last night as I took two 2nd places in big TILT tourneys for around $11,000. It started with the Fifty-Fifty as I built up a big stack early and pretty much maintained a nice stack throughout the tournament. I took two bad beats enroute to the final table but perservered and got to the FT with above-average chips. It was a really, really difficuly FT that took sometime to finish. "TheMasterJ33" was hyper-aggro and we reached the 6-hour break 7-handed. Within five minutes after the break, we lost three players and we got down to 4-handed. I had lost J-J v. A-2 when two deuces flopped and was down to 4BB but somehow battled back. I bobbed and weaved until "TheMasterJ33" somehow busted 3-handed and I was heads-up at a 6:1 chip deficit. First prize was $11,500 which would have been my biggest online score ever but it was clearly not to be. My heads-up game sucks balls...I didn't last too long and took 2nd for $7,300. As this final table was finishing, I was down to the final two tables in the $23K guaranteed---->....

The $23K was a lot like the fifty-fifty as I got a big stack early and pretty much maintained it throughout. The final table was vastly different as the play was horrible and I think it took me around 25 minutes to get heads-up. By this time, I was brutally tired (2:45 in the morning) and although I had about a 1.5:1 chip deficit, I again stood no real chance. I took 2nd for $3,700.

I clearly left around $6K out on the felt due to my inadequacies at heads-up play but am in no position to complain. It was my 2nd largest single online score ever and my biggest night of my online career. It feels really great to start the year out this way and I owe it to two things:

-I ran like a Jamaican sprinter chasing free bobsled lessons.

-My live session at the Bellagio last week may have been an epiphany. It was my best live session ever and as I sat in that particular room (my favorite poker room in the world), I had time to reflect on my poker "career" and whether I was going to continue to pitter away at this venture or really start thinking like a "professional" and make something of myself in poker. I'm not saying by any stretch that this is the start of a mountainous climb but I do think I've changed the way I look at my poker playing and how I can't simply "waste time" playing poker when I have a wife and kids. I owe it to them and myself to play my "A" game at all times and maximize the time I spend playing.

I have a real sense of confidence and "being" at the poker table right now and, based on experience, it's best to ride that wave as long as it's there. I'm hoping I can go on a tear in January and maybe sew up my WSOP funds for the year. A very special shout-out to Smokkee and Virge who provided some much needed rail support at the very late hour. Thanks, guys! I owe you...

On a sidenote, this was another example of the "hotel" effect that I've talked about for years. I'm currently in a San Francisco hotel for the week which is no coincidence at all.

The Chargers season is over...I'm bummed but as usual, they weren't boring this year. Let's draft a WR and a LB and get it on next year!!!

Thanks for reading,

Eric "W2D"

Another Degenerate Weekend!

My wildcard weekend turned out to be one of my better weekends ever in Vegas. We arrived at McCarran at around 9:00 on Saturday morning and went straight to Bally's. We really didn't have any idea where we were going to watch the games but as soon we got to Bally's and saw their awesome sportsbook and attached sports bar we knew that was the place. The first game (Atlanta/Arizona) wasn't starting for another few hours so I killed some time in the "Party Pit" by losing a quick $200 at blackjack (I hate that fucking game...it is 3 times faster than Pai Gow which means you can lose money 3 times as fast).

We got ourselves the best seat in the house at the Sportsbook around 11:30 and never left until around 9:00 at night. I placed several wagers on each football game, bet every race at Santa Anita/Los Alamitos/Delta Downs, and bet a ton of different college basketball games (around 70 wagers for Saturday). My losings were neglible...tempered by a boatload of Bud Lights and 2 (maybe 3) pretzel dogs. The stage was set for the Chargers/Colts game and they surely didn't disappoint.

I've watched plenty of NFL playoff games live as well as 3 Super Bowls but I have to say the atmosphere in the Sportsbook was something quite unique for the Charger game. I guess the combination of almost everyone in the room having some wager on the game as well as having been drinking most of the day makes for a "special" type of electricity. This was the 3rd epic, history-making playoff game the Chargers have played in the last three (3) years. I will definitely never forget that experience.....at least not until this Sunday when they play another epic battle in Pittsburgh.

After the game ended, the five of us went across the street to the fine establishment that is Bill's Gambling Hall. We hit Bill's Steakhouse for dinner (I didn't really like the Pan-seared Scallops) and then I hit the dice for around an hour. Some good rolls let me leave up around $200 and then we wandered over to the Bellagio. I wanted to show the other guys the poker room there and was telling them stories of the different things that have occurred over the years in Bobby's room. We walk in the poker room and I immediately see some shadowy figures in Bobby's room. I get closer to peer in the windows and sure enough, the Big Game is going on. They have hardly been playing the Big Game live over the past few months but sure enough...Phil Ivey, Doyle Brunson, Patrik Antonius, David Benyamine, and David Oppenheim are playing 5-handed. For someone like me, that is basically like going to Cooperstown or meeting your favorie movie star. I was mesmerized just seeing them sitting there. I would have given my left nut to have sat and sweated one of them for 5 minutes. The 4 other guys I was with were not quite as enamored with them as I was. We left the Bellagio and went back to Bally's where I won $300 at Roulette before losing $100 at Blackjack. I hit the room at around 2:00.

3 of the other 4 guys that were there had to leave for various reasons so I was left with a guy that I had met just the day before. We ended up getting along real well and took up the same spot at the Sportsbook around 9:30. We stayed in that spot for 12 hours and this time I bet on pretty much everything that was on the board. Horses, College basketball, NBA basketball, NHL Hockey, NFL Football...I placed over 100 bets on Sunday and ended up losing around $120. I got killed on the over (+41) for the Minnesota/Philadelphia game when it ended 26-14. That one cost me $175 and the Laker game didn't do me any favors but I made up for it in the Stanford/Arizona game and a couple of exactas at Santa Anita.

After we finally staggered out of the sportsbook, David wanted to go back over and check out the Bellagio so we headed across the street and strolled into the poker room. He asked if I was going to play some poker and I didn't really plan on it but I had always wanted to play at the Bellagio so I threw my name on the $1/$2 NL list. I got a seat around 10:30 and didn't really have a plan as to how long I was going to play. The table ended up being great and I played one of my best live sessions in a long time. I played all night until the game started to break and we were down to 3-handed. We played a few more hands 3-handed and I ended my session up at $826 after starting with a $200 stack. I ran back to Bally's trying to get out of the 29-degree weather as fast as possible. I hit the pillow at around 4:30 and ended up getting up around 9:00 and heading straight to the airport for the return trip.
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I have three (3) main goals for 2009 (not resolutions):

-Read more books
-Stick to my diet and workout routine
-Avoid procastination and time-wasting at work

Easy goals...nothing special...but they will help me tighten the screws in my life this year.
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I have my poker stats for 2008 and, to be honest, they're pretty embarrasing. It was my worst year in four years and I basically turned poker from a second income to a hobby in 2008. Here's hoping I can rekindle some of the magic in 2009.

2008 Poker Statistics

Overall winnings- $1,843
Online winnings- $10,378
Live winnings- (-$8,535) <----this included a $10,000 entry to the WSOP Main Event
Biggest online cash- $7,730 (Full Tilt)
Biggest live cash- $3,850 (WSOP $2k event)
Online MTT ROI%- 34%
I played in 641 online MTT's...I won 19 satellites on Full Tilt for seats $216 or above...I made 15 final tables in big MTT's and only won 2 tournaments.
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I'm currently finishing up Outliers by Malcolm Gladwell. It is the third book I've read from Gladwell and it is clearly his best. I highly recommend it.

I'm pumped for another great NFL weekend and I'm excited to see what rabbit the Chargers can pull out of their hat this week. L.T. is done...Merriman has been done...WR Vincent Jackson got arrested for DUI last night...There aren't many things going their way except two big players: Darren Sproles and Mike Scifres. GO BOLTS!!!

I'm heading to San Francisco Sunday night so maybe I can get some good online volume in and maybe start the year off on a positive note.

Thanks for reading,

W2D